Last-Minute 2017 Oscar Predictions
Is it a La La lock? We’ll know in a few hours, but probably, depressingly, yes. Here’s hoping for a least a surprise or two in the other categories.
Here are my picks:
Picture: La La Land
La La Land picked up Best Pic awards from the Producer’s Guild, Director’s Guild, and Critic’s Choice, making this all but a shoo-in, with Vegas odds hovering around 1:4 to 1:6.
It’s the clear choice, especially given the setting, though there’s been a lot of backlash against the perceived inevitable win. I’d think there’s a chance of surprise here, but no other contender is as widely well-received, and I don’t think Moonlight (next up at 4:1) has enough support.
Out of all the nominees, I think Manchester by the Sea was the best film, but apparently too depressing for most. Were I a betting man, I’d throw some money at longshot Hell or High Water at 150:1.
Director: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Biggest lock of the night. And probably deserved, though I’d give it to Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester.
Actor: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Right now, it’s neck-and-neck between Affleck and Fences’ Denzel Washington. I think they’re equally great, but give a slight edge to Affleck as Manchester was the better film.
Actress: Emma Stone, La La Land
Not a fan of Stone’s work here, but she’s the favorite by a wide margin. Isabelle Huppert for Elle would be a pleasant surprise, and my pick, however.
Supporting Actor: Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Moonlight’s Mahershala Ali is the clear favorite, and while he was great in the film, the role was minor. Bridges was also pretty good, and had a meatier role. I think he’ll steal it.
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, Fences
Davis is such a heavy favorite it would be silly to bet against her, but I’d give it to Moonlight’s Naomie Harris.
Adapted Screenplay: Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney, Moonlight
Moonlight is running second behind La La Land in most categories, but here’s one it can and most likely will win.
Original Screenplay: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
A tight race between Manchester and La La Land. But Chazelle’s script was the weakest aspect of his film.
Animated Film: Zootopia
I’d love to see Kubo or The Red Turtle win, but this category disappoints me every year. The high-grossing Hollywood film almost always wins, no slight to Zootopia, which was good on its own terms.
O.J.: Made in America is one of the best films of the year, but I predict the Academy’s Documentary branch is a stickler for rules, and might penalize it for being released as a TV miniseries.
...and the rest:
Costume Design: Jackie
Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Foreign Language Film: The Salesman
Makeup: Star Trek Beyond?
Original Score: La La Land
Original Song: La La Land (City of Stars)
Production Design: La La Land
Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Sound Mixing: La La Land
Live Action Short: Timecode
Animated Short: Piper
Documentary Short: Joe’s Violin